Saturday, December 11, 2010
Best Places to Retire
Many people dream of moving to a new location in retirement. When you are no longer tied to your job you can finally take off for a warmer climate, pursue your hobbies, or simply move closer to your grandchildren. Selecting a place to retire requires a great deal of thought and planning. Use our Best Places to Retire search tool to find a place that has both beautiful scenery and big city amenities. Read more... http://www.realtor.org/narlservredirect.nsf/pages/NT0000183A?OpenDocument&WT.mc_id=LS120810&CAT=Curr
Wednesday, December 1, 2010
7 Reasons Why Your Property Won't Sell
1. Your property won't sell because your photos are "less than impressive". The vast majority of home buyers start their search for a home on the Internet, so your property had better look fantastic in print. Not just nice, it has to look downright fabulous. Today an internet view is the same as a 'virtual showing'... if your house gets past that, then they might (just might) make an appointment to see it in person... You should really consider that your SECOND showing. Today's online viewers are expecting good quality photos (and lots of them...the picture below... taken from Google Maps... is completely unacceptable. That's a $500,000 listing, take a moment and your digital camera and force your agent to go earn their commission), a virtual tour, maybe even a floor plan, and they need to be high-quality, or don't bother.
2. Your property won't sell because it's overpriced. It's important to be as objective as you possibly can. Look at the home as though you were a "buyer"... if necessary, make an appointment with your Realtor to view other properties that are priced comparably to yours. Be brutally objective. Given the other options on the market (and yes, you DO have to include short sales and foreclosures on your list... your potential buyers are!), would YOU buy your home, over the others that are currently available on the market?
If the answer is "NO", (and try to be as honest as you can) well then you have your work cut out for you, don't you? You either have to "update" your home to meet or beat the competition...(that might mean an updated bathroom or kitchen, or neutralizing some decorating... remove that old wallpaper that was there when you bought the house or lower your price to adjust for it. if you can't afford to sell it for the price, that you KNOW it should sell for, this may not be the right market for you to sell. Consider taking it off-market.
3. Your property won't sell because it shows badly. This could mean almost anything... from the 60 pound Rottweiler, barking and drooling at the potential buyers from behind the safety of the flimsiest child-gate, to the lingering smell of 30-years of smoking. Maybe the carpeting shows traffic-pattern wear, or your windows allow in slightly more than daylight. All things that aren't visible from the internet, but whoa.... once you get inside the house... they show up, like a cat-urine-soaked-shag carpet on a 95 degree day in New Orleans!
4. Your property won't sell because you're invisible. Today's buyer comes from the internet, almost exclusively. Have you (or your agent) simply plopped the property on the MLS, and started praying? Are you on all the websites...(Trulia, Zillow, Craig's List, Google Base, etc...) all the places that buyers are searching? If not, you need to be, now! Don't try to be a secret, in today's electronic world. You want to be found, and the sooner the better.
5. Your property won't sell because your listing is tired and stale on the market. Okay... yes, you overpriced your home initially when you first came on the market a year and a half ago. But since then you have reduced your price almost monthly, constantly chasing the market down. Now, finally you're truly priced where you believe should be, but your listing (not your house) has become tired and stale. Everyone who is looking for your type of property (ie: 3br/1.1 bath) in your area has already seen the listing online, or in person and they remember that there was "something" about it that they didn't like... but what they don't remember is... what they didn't like.... was the price. Time to take the listing off market. Let it cool off (3-6 months), and bring it back on fresh in the Spring. Yeah, you'll have 6 mos. worth of holding-costs... but you'll more than make up for it in your purchase price.
btw... Resist the temptation to bring the house back on at a higher price, than when you left the market. Just "don't do it"!
6. Your property won't sell because your house won't appraise. The house looks great... you've finally gotten someone to bring you a bid on your slightly over-priced, but beautiful pied-a-terre. But the bank appraiser says it's worth $20,000 less than your buyer has agreed to pay. Heavy sigh... bite the bullet.... negotiate with them. If you have to drop the price $20,000 to make it work.... "make it work"... chances are, anybody else trying to buy your house will run into the same problem. If you're not willing to negotiate the difference, you may find yourself with no buyer, and accepting a lower offer somewhere down the line.
7. Your property won't sell because it's unavailable to show. You have a baby, and a 1-year old. And they need their naps. So you've told your Realtor in no-uncertain-terms, that you'll only allow showings between 9:00a.m - Noon, and then again from 2:30-5:30 p.m. And no showings on Saturday or Sundays. "After all", you've told him "we still live here.. it's our home!". Well guess what? They can't buy it, if they can't see it. As good as your online photos are, they're no substitute for an in-person visit. "If they really want to see it, they'll reschedule", you're already answering as you read this. Nonsense! What they'll do, is they'll just move on to the next property in line (there are dozens like yours available) and maybe they'll buy that one instead. Once you put your property on the market it stops being your "home", and has become your "product". And you want your product to be seen by as large a buying audience as possible.
2. Your property won't sell because it's overpriced. It's important to be as objective as you possibly can. Look at the home as though you were a "buyer"... if necessary, make an appointment with your Realtor to view other properties that are priced comparably to yours. Be brutally objective. Given the other options on the market (and yes, you DO have to include short sales and foreclosures on your list... your potential buyers are!), would YOU buy your home, over the others that are currently available on the market?
If the answer is "NO", (and try to be as honest as you can) well then you have your work cut out for you, don't you? You either have to "update" your home to meet or beat the competition...(that might mean an updated bathroom or kitchen, or neutralizing some decorating... remove that old wallpaper that was there when you bought the house or lower your price to adjust for it. if you can't afford to sell it for the price, that you KNOW it should sell for, this may not be the right market for you to sell. Consider taking it off-market.
3. Your property won't sell because it shows badly. This could mean almost anything... from the 60 pound Rottweiler, barking and drooling at the potential buyers from behind the safety of the flimsiest child-gate, to the lingering smell of 30-years of smoking. Maybe the carpeting shows traffic-pattern wear, or your windows allow in slightly more than daylight. All things that aren't visible from the internet, but whoa.... once you get inside the house... they show up, like a cat-urine-soaked-shag carpet on a 95 degree day in New Orleans!
4. Your property won't sell because you're invisible. Today's buyer comes from the internet, almost exclusively. Have you (or your agent) simply plopped the property on the MLS, and started praying? Are you on all the websites...(Trulia, Zillow, Craig's List, Google Base, etc...) all the places that buyers are searching? If not, you need to be, now! Don't try to be a secret, in today's electronic world. You want to be found, and the sooner the better.
5. Your property won't sell because your listing is tired and stale on the market. Okay... yes, you overpriced your home initially when you first came on the market a year and a half ago. But since then you have reduced your price almost monthly, constantly chasing the market down. Now, finally you're truly priced where you believe should be, but your listing (not your house) has become tired and stale. Everyone who is looking for your type of property (ie: 3br/1.1 bath) in your area has already seen the listing online, or in person and they remember that there was "something" about it that they didn't like... but what they don't remember is... what they didn't like.... was the price. Time to take the listing off market. Let it cool off (3-6 months), and bring it back on fresh in the Spring. Yeah, you'll have 6 mos. worth of holding-costs... but you'll more than make up for it in your purchase price.
btw... Resist the temptation to bring the house back on at a higher price, than when you left the market. Just "don't do it"!
6. Your property won't sell because your house won't appraise. The house looks great... you've finally gotten someone to bring you a bid on your slightly over-priced, but beautiful pied-a-terre. But the bank appraiser says it's worth $20,000 less than your buyer has agreed to pay. Heavy sigh... bite the bullet.... negotiate with them. If you have to drop the price $20,000 to make it work.... "make it work"... chances are, anybody else trying to buy your house will run into the same problem. If you're not willing to negotiate the difference, you may find yourself with no buyer, and accepting a lower offer somewhere down the line.
7. Your property won't sell because it's unavailable to show. You have a baby, and a 1-year old. And they need their naps. So you've told your Realtor in no-uncertain-terms, that you'll only allow showings between 9:00a.m - Noon, and then again from 2:30-5:30 p.m. And no showings on Saturday or Sundays. "After all", you've told him "we still live here.. it's our home!". Well guess what? They can't buy it, if they can't see it. As good as your online photos are, they're no substitute for an in-person visit. "If they really want to see it, they'll reschedule", you're already answering as you read this. Nonsense! What they'll do, is they'll just move on to the next property in line (there are dozens like yours available) and maybe they'll buy that one instead. Once you put your property on the market it stops being your "home", and has become your "product". And you want your product to be seen by as large a buying audience as possible.
Thursday, August 12, 2010
Looking for a Summer Remodeling Project? These Tips Might Help
Other than vacations, summer is the time of the year most popular for home improvement. The long days and warm, sunny weather make a great time to work on repairs and renovations without much of the hassles and delays that rain and other elements bring.
Following are tips and projects—both large and small—for homeowners looking to spruce their homes up this summer.
Patios and Decks
What better way to enjoy the warm days than by creating an outdoor living space for the family to enjoy.
Decks and patios are among the most popular summer remodeling ideas. There are various factors to take into consideration when deciding on whether a patio or deck is the most appropriate project to undertake. Such factors include soil condition and consistency, site terrain, use, capacity and privacy, as well as the cost and maintenance you are willing to put up with.
Home Maintenance
Throughout the seasons, your home has taken good care of you and your family and now is the best time to give back.
Go through your property to evaluate and create a checklist on areas that need mending or replacement. This list is a crucial preparation before calling a contractor or handyman for maintenance/repair services. Some common maintenance and repair include:
•Waterproofing the basement
•Re-caulking and replacing weather-striping
•Cleaning and sealing wooden decks
•Trimming bushes and trees
•Realigning downspouts and gutters
•Repairing the roof
•Cleaning the pool
•Mending the fence
•Sealing cracks along driveways, foundation, walkways, etc.
•Maintenance of HVAC systems
Energy-Efficient Renovation
When it comes to summer remodeling, there's no better way to invest your hard-earned dollars than by making your home energy efficient. An energy-efficient summer remodel is truly a worthwhile endeavor as it will result in years of savings on your energy bills. Some of the common items you can buy and integrate into your energy-efficient renovation include:
•Insulation systems and materials
•Roofs that resist heat gain
•Biomass-burning stoves
•Energy-efficient windows
•HVAC systems with the highest efficiency tier
•Solar panels
•Fuel cells
•Geothermal heat pumps
•Wind energy systems
Taking on one (or more!) of these projects is a great way to give back to your home this summer…and, in some cases, save you a bit of money, too.
Call me if you need any references to professionals that can help!
Following are tips and projects—both large and small—for homeowners looking to spruce their homes up this summer.
Patios and Decks
What better way to enjoy the warm days than by creating an outdoor living space for the family to enjoy.
Decks and patios are among the most popular summer remodeling ideas. There are various factors to take into consideration when deciding on whether a patio or deck is the most appropriate project to undertake. Such factors include soil condition and consistency, site terrain, use, capacity and privacy, as well as the cost and maintenance you are willing to put up with.
Home Maintenance
Throughout the seasons, your home has taken good care of you and your family and now is the best time to give back.
Go through your property to evaluate and create a checklist on areas that need mending or replacement. This list is a crucial preparation before calling a contractor or handyman for maintenance/repair services. Some common maintenance and repair include:
•Waterproofing the basement
•Re-caulking and replacing weather-striping
•Cleaning and sealing wooden decks
•Trimming bushes and trees
•Realigning downspouts and gutters
•Repairing the roof
•Cleaning the pool
•Mending the fence
•Sealing cracks along driveways, foundation, walkways, etc.
•Maintenance of HVAC systems
Energy-Efficient Renovation
When it comes to summer remodeling, there's no better way to invest your hard-earned dollars than by making your home energy efficient. An energy-efficient summer remodel is truly a worthwhile endeavor as it will result in years of savings on your energy bills. Some of the common items you can buy and integrate into your energy-efficient renovation include:
•Insulation systems and materials
•Roofs that resist heat gain
•Biomass-burning stoves
•Energy-efficient windows
•HVAC systems with the highest efficiency tier
•Solar panels
•Fuel cells
•Geothermal heat pumps
•Wind energy systems
Taking on one (or more!) of these projects is a great way to give back to your home this summer…and, in some cases, save you a bit of money, too.
Call me if you need any references to professionals that can help!
Friday, August 6, 2010
Short Sale and Foreclosure Insights
Fannie Mae has just released a website to provide help for homeowners who are struggling to stay in their homes. Check out www.knowyouroptions.com
Wednesday, July 21, 2010
Tuesday, June 15, 2010
What Matters Most in 2010?
This is a tough question to answer, isn’t it? I am sure if I asked you what mattered most to you in your life, you would be able to tell me very quickly. But, if I watched you throughout your days, weeks, months, would the way you prioritize your time truly reflect what matter’s most to you?
If you are like most people (including me) , there is so much competing for our attention that it is easy to get caught up in the “tyranny of the urgent” putting out fires and rushing from thing to thing. Then we are left with a feeling of disappointment or emptiness because we haven’t truly focused on our heart’s priorities.
I’d like to share a few ideas for helping you find your way to What Matter’s Most.
1 – Make a list of all the areas of your life: Family, Personal, Spiritual, Physical Health, Career, – general categories will do just fine.
2 – Write down one single personal, heartfelt priority in that area for you. For example, under Family, your singular priority may be to be to have a happy, cheerful home. A Physical Health priority might be to exercise in some form or fashion three times a week. Yes I know there’s lots to choose from, but for the purpose of this exercise, choose the one priority to speaks to your heart.
3 – Have your list of priorities? Great! Now for the next week, every time a choice must be made about how you spend your time, I want you to consult this list. If it does not fit under one of your priorities, I want you to take a minute to evaluate it. If you feel compelled to do it, are you willing to forfeit another priority on your list in order to do it? So often we “think” something is a necessity when it really isn’t.
4 – Now that you’ve developed a more conscious attitude toward your time commitments and how they reflect your priorities, use this new found knowledge to help you get to What Matters Most and leave the Urgent But Unimportant behind.
This is not a foolproof exercise. Really it is just a way to help you make choices (one of my favorite words!) about what matters most to you. It is also a way to help you become more conscious about how you spend your time. If you find that the way you spend your time is in conflict with what really matters to you then you have some decisions to make. You can either change what matters to you or change how you spend your time. That sounds simple I know, but those are really the only available options.
When I do this exercise – and I do it fairly regularly – I often find that what I am devoting the lion’s share of my time to has nothing at all to do with what matters to my heart. Then I face to challenging but doable task of re-aligning my time with my values. Sometimes the choices are difficult, but the reward is a happy spirit and a fulfilled heart. And that is what makes this life worth living!
If you are like most people (including me) , there is so much competing for our attention that it is easy to get caught up in the “tyranny of the urgent” putting out fires and rushing from thing to thing. Then we are left with a feeling of disappointment or emptiness because we haven’t truly focused on our heart’s priorities.
I’d like to share a few ideas for helping you find your way to What Matter’s Most.
1 – Make a list of all the areas of your life: Family, Personal, Spiritual, Physical Health, Career, – general categories will do just fine.
2 – Write down one single personal, heartfelt priority in that area for you. For example, under Family, your singular priority may be to be to have a happy, cheerful home. A Physical Health priority might be to exercise in some form or fashion three times a week. Yes I know there’s lots to choose from, but for the purpose of this exercise, choose the one priority to speaks to your heart.
3 – Have your list of priorities? Great! Now for the next week, every time a choice must be made about how you spend your time, I want you to consult this list. If it does not fit under one of your priorities, I want you to take a minute to evaluate it. If you feel compelled to do it, are you willing to forfeit another priority on your list in order to do it? So often we “think” something is a necessity when it really isn’t.
4 – Now that you’ve developed a more conscious attitude toward your time commitments and how they reflect your priorities, use this new found knowledge to help you get to What Matters Most and leave the Urgent But Unimportant behind.
This is not a foolproof exercise. Really it is just a way to help you make choices (one of my favorite words!) about what matters most to you. It is also a way to help you become more conscious about how you spend your time. If you find that the way you spend your time is in conflict with what really matters to you then you have some decisions to make. You can either change what matters to you or change how you spend your time. That sounds simple I know, but those are really the only available options.
When I do this exercise – and I do it fairly regularly – I often find that what I am devoting the lion’s share of my time to has nothing at all to do with what matters to my heart. Then I face to challenging but doable task of re-aligning my time with my values. Sometimes the choices are difficult, but the reward is a happy spirit and a fulfilled heart. And that is what makes this life worth living!
Wednesday, June 9, 2010
Monday, May 17, 2010
Sunday, May 9, 2010
Q&A: Can You Get a Loan Today?
QUESTION: Changes in the housing and mortgage industries have prompted many people to wonder: "Can I get a loan today?"
ANSWER: The answer is simple: Yes!
Despite the negative headlines over the past year, there's actually plenty of money available for loans. In fact, reports indicate that over $2.7 Trillion in loans were originated in 2009. That's over $1 Trillion more than 2008.
However, mortgages must make sense in today's terms - not the looser standards permitted by lenders a few years ago.
What does this mean to borrowers today?
Lenders have returned to a pre-2000 mindset - a kind of "common-sense lending" that seeks long-term success versus short-term profits. That means lenders need documented evidence that a borrower is creditworthy and is likely to repay the loan. This creditworthiness is based on the four tenets of lending: the borrower's ability to pay, willingness to pay, equity in the transaction, and the property itself.
With interest rates still near all-time lows and home prices at extremely affordable, low levels, it's worth the time and effort to find out if you can benefit from common-sense lending in today's real estate market.
ANSWER: The answer is simple: Yes!
Despite the negative headlines over the past year, there's actually plenty of money available for loans. In fact, reports indicate that over $2.7 Trillion in loans were originated in 2009. That's over $1 Trillion more than 2008.
However, mortgages must make sense in today's terms - not the looser standards permitted by lenders a few years ago.
What does this mean to borrowers today?
Lenders have returned to a pre-2000 mindset - a kind of "common-sense lending" that seeks long-term success versus short-term profits. That means lenders need documented evidence that a borrower is creditworthy and is likely to repay the loan. This creditworthiness is based on the four tenets of lending: the borrower's ability to pay, willingness to pay, equity in the transaction, and the property itself.
With interest rates still near all-time lows and home prices at extremely affordable, low levels, it's worth the time and effort to find out if you can benefit from common-sense lending in today's real estate market.
Thursday, April 22, 2010
Home Remodeling...What's Your Best Return on Investment?
Do you remodel and stay....... or sell? How do you know if your remodeling dollars are well spent? How much can you expect to recoup from your investment?
According to the 2009 / 2010 survey published by Remodeling magazine, here's how it breaks down:
For a mid-range priced home, you can expect the average cost and recoup for the following projects:
Average Cost vs Expected Return on your investment
Bathroom Remodel $19,000
Recoup 60% of your costs
Bathroom Addition $48,000
Recoup 56% of your costs
Garage Addition $72,000
Recoup 63% of your costs
Convert a Bedroom to a Home Office $32,000
Recoup 47% of your costs
Major Kitchen Remodel $65,000
Recoup 72% of your costs
Minor Kitchen Remodel $24,000
Recoup 76% of your costs
Window Replacement (vinyl) $13,000
Recoup 74% of your costs
Backup Power Generator $17,000
Recoup 75% of your costs
According to the 2009 / 2010 survey published by Remodeling magazine, here's how it breaks down:
For a mid-range priced home, you can expect the average cost and recoup for the following projects:
Average Cost vs Expected Return on your investment
Bathroom Remodel $19,000
Recoup 60% of your costs
Bathroom Addition $48,000
Recoup 56% of your costs
Garage Addition $72,000
Recoup 63% of your costs
Convert a Bedroom to a Home Office $32,000
Recoup 47% of your costs
Major Kitchen Remodel $65,000
Recoup 72% of your costs
Minor Kitchen Remodel $24,000
Recoup 76% of your costs
Window Replacement (vinyl) $13,000
Recoup 74% of your costs
Backup Power Generator $17,000
Recoup 75% of your costs
Tuesday, April 6, 2010
2051 Serendipity Way -Open House Weekend!
The doors in Montgomery County are opening...
You’re invited to step inside and take a look!
I am proud to invite you to participate in the first ever REALTOR® Nationwide Open House on April 10-11. Don’t miss this opportunity to tour countless homes throughout Montgomery County to find the one that is just right for you.
Your ideal home is out there. Find it now while…
There’s still time to get the Expanded Tax Credit, worth up to $8,000 for first time buyers and up to $6500 for repeat buyers.
Interest rates are still at historic lows
Home prices are more affordable than ever
There are a variety of home choices available
Numerous local properties will welcome your visit on April 10 - 11
Take advantage of these incentives before they disappear. Contact me for more information.
You’re invited to step inside and take a look!
I am proud to invite you to participate in the first ever REALTOR® Nationwide Open House on April 10-11. Don’t miss this opportunity to tour countless homes throughout Montgomery County to find the one that is just right for you.
Your ideal home is out there. Find it now while…
There’s still time to get the Expanded Tax Credit, worth up to $8,000 for first time buyers and up to $6500 for repeat buyers.
Interest rates are still at historic lows
Home prices are more affordable than ever
There are a variety of home choices available
Numerous local properties will welcome your visit on April 10 - 11
Take advantage of these incentives before they disappear. Contact me for more information.
Thursday, February 11, 2010
Energy Tax Credits Can Benefit You!
Tax season is upon us and like it or not at some point in the next two months we will all be trudging our way through this grueling process. I hope that many of your were able to take advantage of the some of the more heavily publicized credits like the first time home buyer tax credit. Hopefully, many of you also took advantage of some of the many tax credits offered or expanded upon in the The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 that applied to energy efficient improvements in your home.
The most concise explanation of what qualifies and how much is being offered per item through the US Department of Energy tax breaks page. The highlights are a 30% tax credit on Energy Star Certified items such as AC's, windows, insulation, roofing with a $1500 cap. The big boon was for alternative energy sources such as solar or geothermal. These now qualify for a 30% tax credit with no cap through the year 2016. Be sure to check the Energy Star website for more specific list of items that can qualify and how to apply for the credits.
After the success of the Cash for Clunkers program, the federal government rolled out a plan in the fall that would provide funding for rebates on energy efficient appliances. Through the Energy Efficient Appliance Rebate Program, individual states will be able to offer rebates for energy efficient appliances so check this out if you are in need of anything from a new fridge to new AC's. It varies by state so click on your state, it could mean $100's in savings.
Before you consider any improvement and/or appliance purchase or if you have recently made an improvement, be sure to check the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency. This too varies by state and offers updated info about programs and incentives that promote sustainability in your area. You can actually "stack" most of these credits, rebates, and incentives currently offered so be sure to take full advantage.
The most concise explanation of what qualifies and how much is being offered per item through the US Department of Energy tax breaks page. The highlights are a 30% tax credit on Energy Star Certified items such as AC's, windows, insulation, roofing with a $1500 cap. The big boon was for alternative energy sources such as solar or geothermal. These now qualify for a 30% tax credit with no cap through the year 2016. Be sure to check the Energy Star website for more specific list of items that can qualify and how to apply for the credits.
After the success of the Cash for Clunkers program, the federal government rolled out a plan in the fall that would provide funding for rebates on energy efficient appliances. Through the Energy Efficient Appliance Rebate Program, individual states will be able to offer rebates for energy efficient appliances so check this out if you are in need of anything from a new fridge to new AC's. It varies by state so click on your state, it could mean $100's in savings.
Before you consider any improvement and/or appliance purchase or if you have recently made an improvement, be sure to check the Database of State Incentives for Renewables & Efficiency. This too varies by state and offers updated info about programs and incentives that promote sustainability in your area. You can actually "stack" most of these credits, rebates, and incentives currently offered so be sure to take full advantage.
Wednesday, February 3, 2010
Perkiomen Valley School District
Sunday, January 17, 2010
2010 WILL Be Better Than 2009
“It is very hard to make predictions. Especially about the future” –Yogi Berra, former Yankees Hall of Fame Catcher
2009 ended much stronger than it started. Unit sales were up in virtually every market in the country and while prices are still trending down, inventory shrinkage in the entry level points to price firming. Inventories in the mid- to upper-price brackets show that prices have a ways to adjust (that means downward).
The tax credit walloped housing the fourth quarter with November 2009 unit sales up 42.9% over November 2008. December won’t be quite as robust but will still be better than December 2009. We expect the same in January and February with small increases in unit sales over those months last year. Then will come the second explosion with the expiration of tax credit too. Sales in the April to June period should be substantially above the same months of 2009.
The second half of 2010 should be quieter in terms of month-over-month increases in unit sales. Depends too on where your business is. If your business is in foreclosures and entry level housing 2010 could be your best year ever. If you are focused on the upper price brackets 2010 will another tough year.
Housing sales are a function of demand. The growth of households, of family incomes and employment are the most important factors. Don’t get fooled by thinking that Americans are going to defy these basics and go back to buying homes as if they were flipping stocks. People need a place to live, its that simple. While in the short term households will make decisions based on tax credits or great values in home prices and mortgage rates, only a change in need will drive demand. And it turns out that the demand is fairly static--about 5% of all households a year will purchase a home.
We are bullish on housing in 2010 not because we believe it will be hugely better than 2009 but because the country continues to grow and people will need a place to live. A certain percentage are going to buy a home because their needs changed. Once all the tax credits have expired and the lowest interest rates you will ever see pass, the underlying demand will still be there and families will go back to buying homes.
For those who made it this far, take heart. It only gets better from now on.
2009 ended much stronger than it started. Unit sales were up in virtually every market in the country and while prices are still trending down, inventory shrinkage in the entry level points to price firming. Inventories in the mid- to upper-price brackets show that prices have a ways to adjust (that means downward).
The tax credit walloped housing the fourth quarter with November 2009 unit sales up 42.9% over November 2008. December won’t be quite as robust but will still be better than December 2009. We expect the same in January and February with small increases in unit sales over those months last year. Then will come the second explosion with the expiration of tax credit too. Sales in the April to June period should be substantially above the same months of 2009.
The second half of 2010 should be quieter in terms of month-over-month increases in unit sales. Depends too on where your business is. If your business is in foreclosures and entry level housing 2010 could be your best year ever. If you are focused on the upper price brackets 2010 will another tough year.
Housing sales are a function of demand. The growth of households, of family incomes and employment are the most important factors. Don’t get fooled by thinking that Americans are going to defy these basics and go back to buying homes as if they were flipping stocks. People need a place to live, its that simple. While in the short term households will make decisions based on tax credits or great values in home prices and mortgage rates, only a change in need will drive demand. And it turns out that the demand is fairly static--about 5% of all households a year will purchase a home.
We are bullish on housing in 2010 not because we believe it will be hugely better than 2009 but because the country continues to grow and people will need a place to live. A certain percentage are going to buy a home because their needs changed. Once all the tax credits have expired and the lowest interest rates you will ever see pass, the underlying demand will still be there and families will go back to buying homes.
For those who made it this far, take heart. It only gets better from now on.
Friday, January 8, 2010
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